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Above Average Hurricane Season Expected, Putting US Resin Production at Risk
May 25, 2022

Resin production along the US East and Gulf Coast may have to contend with an above average hurricane season over the next 6 months.

In its outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

The forecast also calls for likely range of 14 to 21 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).

NOAA added that the increased activity anticipated this hurricane season is attributed to several climate factors, including the ongoing La NiƱa that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon.

Should the 2022 hurricane season develop as forecast, it would be the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season.

As a reminder, the 2021 hurricane season impacted resin producers in early September when Hurricane Ida hit the Louisiana coast, taking some operations offline. The impact from Hurricane Ida on PE and PP was not as severe as what was seen in the PVC and polystyrene markets.

Overall, Ida took out just over 5.7 million mt of resin production. This was relatively small in comparison to what hurricane season did in 2020 and after the winter storm in February 2021.

By The Plastics Exchange.

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